June 3, 2016

Auto Lending's Future

Auto loans have grown rapidly in the past few years with the favorable combination of low rates, low gas prices, and continued job growth. But J.P. Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon is growing concerned. As noted in the WSJ he's looking at a range of risk and pricing policies to make sure Chase will not be hurt if there is a shift in the market.

According to the article Dimon is keeping an eye on:

  • Pricing terms of recent loans
  • Loan size relative to the value of the vehicle
  • Terms on auto leases

Auto loan balances have increased 11% in the past year with the portion held by subprime borrowers increasing from 9% to 11%, a seemingly modest change but significant in such a short time.

Steps To Take Now

If auto loans are a significant part of your loan/lease portfolio you should:

  • Monitor the risk profile of new applicants and loans on multiple dimensions including risk score, income, loan-to-value ratios, and income stability
  • Track vintage performance by drilling down into historical portfolio performance to identify high-risk segments in the portfolio
  • Review past credit policy changes to determine if the rationale for the changes has been justified with additional profitable volume from these new customers

These are things you should be doing already. But many banks lack access to the data needed to monitor performance accurately and on a timely basis.  As the cost of capturing data has fallen there's no reason that financial institutions of all sizes aren't doing this already. That's something we can help you with. Just click on the "Contact Us" button to the right.

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